The marketing of hamburger buns: An improved model for prediction

The Spring 1974 issue of this Journal published a paper that presented a model for predicting sales of hamburger buns. This article evaluates the model on the bases of statistical reporting, model specification, and implications for production policy. In addition, using the same data used for the original model, an improved model is developed whereby there is a 50% increase in explained variance.     

The changing duties of today's foreman

There are, today, more foremen in ratio to the numbers of workers they are supervising; they have better educations than foremen have ever had before, or have ever been expected to have; and their responsibilities are expanding to new areas.     

Duration gaps with futures and swaps for managing interest rate risk at depository institutions

Duration gaps for depository institutions are derived for economic net worth, economic net income, and book value interest income. The duration gaps previously constructed for on-balance sheet accounts are expanded to off-balance sheet accounts, including futures contracts and swap agreements. These expanded duration gaps are indicators of the sensitivity of the market value of net worth and income measures to interest rate fluctuations. Managers of depository institutions can establish these duration gaps as targets and can utilize futures markets and swap agreements to affect the target values. The developments in this article are based on a single factor model of interest rate movements, but the results can be extended.The work in this article is based partly on Bierwag and Kaufman (1989), a study prepared for and funded by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. We have benefited from comments of discussants and participants at presentations at HEC Jouy-en-Josas, the meetings of the European Finance Association, and seminars at the University of Delaware, Loyola University of Chicago, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Florida State University, and the University of Illinois, Chicago.     

Rediscounting private dollar debt and capital flight in Ecuador

This paper presents an analysis of the impact of structural change on capital flight when the structural change constrains the monetary authorities' ability to impose an inflation tax. Implications for the conduct of economic policy in open economies are drawn from the experience of Ecuador.     

Shareholder Activism, "Voluntary" Restructuring, and Internal Labor Markets

We model an internal labor market in which employee behavior and compensation are affected by the firm's financial position and the threat of hostile takeover or other exercise of shareholder "voice." We show how good past performance can result in excessively generous promotion and pay decisions. While the threat of shareholder activism will remove this "slack," activists optimally face a positive cost barrier, which in turn varies across firms. The cost barrier is higher when cooperation or "helping" between employees is more important, and is lower when employees receive efficiency wages due to an inability to "pay" for their jobs. Since the importance of helping is associated with pay compression and "flat" pay ladders, such firms should also exhibit a greater degree of management entrenchment.